Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x7810…b011 sports 332 markets active 3h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$626 (+5%) realized +$191 · open +$435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%147W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$84
14 days+$110
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$302
crypto 40% −$312
other 6% +$443
world 4% +$66
culture 1% −$56
finance 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 32% 27% -20.7%
≤30d 85 +15.6% +4.6% 39% 38% -14.3%
≤90d 191 +9.8% -0.7% 45% 42% -7.3%
all 324 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 43% -9.7%
10% -16.9% 40% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 35% -26.3%
20% -32.3% 32% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$435
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses147 / 177
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions4
Markets (closed)324 / 332
History coverage108d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 26¢ 74¢ $228 $648 +$420 (+185%)
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 50¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+63%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 78¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+56%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ 30¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +252%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$38 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$21 -74%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$16 +262%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 −$28 -36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $49 +$29 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$24 -82%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$20 -57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $135 +$49 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$120 +293%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$12 +115%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$3 -33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +324%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +194%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$92 +360%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$56 +543%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$23 +149%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $56 +$43 +78%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$50 +246%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ $9 3h
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 3h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $10 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 79¢ $323 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. BUY 6¢ $2 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 26¢ $345 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $77 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $49 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.48 · official $691.19 (match) · 873 history records