Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x7816…d786 sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$147 (+6%) realized +$159 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%174W / 142L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$148
14 days+$177
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$153
other 5% −$7
crypto 2% −$9
politics 1% −$4
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 57% +13.6%
≤30d 88 +8.5% -1.8% 57% 57% +6.5%
≤90d 88 +8.5% -1.8% 57% 57% +6.5%
all 316 -6.1% -15.1% 55% 46% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -3.7%
10% -23.2% 41% -12.9%
15% -30.6% 35% -21.4%
20% -37.4% 27% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses174 / 142
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)316 / 317
History coverage214d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 53¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$22 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $46 +$32 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$21 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$16 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$15 +103%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$14 -60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$11 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $36 +$28 +77%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$16 +112%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$22 +213%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$28 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$15 +116%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $23 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$24 +303%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $12 +$6 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$15 +114%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$9 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $14 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 +$12 +82%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$11 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $19 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $16 +$13 +82%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $17 +$9 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$37 +122%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 93¢ $68 27m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 39¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $78 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 19¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 48¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 63¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 49¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 52¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 35¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 590 history records