Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7818…d185
world · 126 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,383 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,683 · open −$1,116
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49,464
Realized+$4,683
Unrealized−$1,116
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)91 / 126
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1,754
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 45 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days−$185
14 days−$954
30 days−$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7,749 $7,315 −$434 (-6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $6,353 $7,170 +$817 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,312 $5,203 −$109 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4,951 $4,799 −$152 (-3%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $2,517 $2,672 +$155 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $2,240 $2,427 +$187 (+8%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,337 $2,423 +$85 (+4%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,428 $1,475 +$47 (+3%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 73¢ 80¢ $1,347 $1,470 +$123 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $1,398 $1,464 +$66 (+5%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 81¢ 77¢ $1,330 $1,267 −$64 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $1,140 $1,118 −$22 (-2%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No 71¢ 56¢ $1,404 $1,105 −$299 (-21%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $968 $1,058 +$90 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 98¢ $971 $976 +$5 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $982 $840 −$142 (-14%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $754 $775 +$21 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $649 $557 −$91 (-14%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 61¢ 56¢ $600 $549 −$51 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $622 $490 −$132 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $450 $475 +$25 (+6%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 93¢ $468 $466 −$2 (-0%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 90¢ $341 $450 +$110 (+32%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 90¢ 82¢ $468 $426 −$41 (-9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 78¢ 89¢ $309 $350 +$41 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $490 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31,394 +$405 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $1,091 +$160 +15%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $200 −$54 -27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $26 $0 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,456 +$148 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1,256 −$454 -36%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $176 +$24 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $630 −$116 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,480 +$23 +2%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $266 −$264 -99%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $734 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $690 +$297 +43%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $190 −$152 -80%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,891 +$832 +7%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $189 +$14 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $921 −$483 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $9,138 −$526 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $275 +$531 +193%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1,538 +$275 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $78 +$2 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $445 +$55 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,134 +$265 +12%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $172 −$122 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,318 −$251 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $2,548 −$574 -22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $386 −$210 -54%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $162 −$11 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $9,729 −$1,934 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $790 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $14,162 +$1,742 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 29 $3,797 −$520 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $660 +$472 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $1,260 +$80 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 27 $524 +$17 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $425 +$20 +5%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $907 +$14 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $115 +$182 +159%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $1,214 +$39 +3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,482 −$458 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $589 −$27 -4%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $264 −$264 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% −$1,440
other 28% +$4,955
politics 8% −$1,150
crypto 6% +$1,176
economics 1% +$21
tech 0% +$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $223 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $250 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $186 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $290 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $183 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $129 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $270 10h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $400 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $330 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $118 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $172 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 62¢ $61 12h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $4,394 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $962 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.6% -30.8% 38% 15% -9.3%
≤30d 58 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 21% -10.2%
≤90d 91 +21.3% +9.8% 49% 27% -7.3%
all 91 +21.3% +9.8% 49% 27% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 27% -7.3%
10% -0.7% 13% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here -10.3% 11% -24.2%
20% -19.1% 9% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,464.04 · official $49,464.04 (match) · 3500 history records