Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7819…be44 sports 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-12%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$77
other 17% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +12.2% +1.5% 66% 62% -38.7%
≤30d 31 +18.0% +6.8% 65% 61% -22.3%
≤90d 31 +18.0% +6.8% 65% 61% -22.3%
all 31 +18.0% +6.8% 65% 61% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 61% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 52% -29.7%
15% -12.8% 42% -36.5%
20% -21.3% 29% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$31 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +132%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$22 +438%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $9 +$10 +112%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$20 +96%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$17 +72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$11 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $158 −$158 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $41 +$126 +305%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $4 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $7 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $7 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 89¢ $4 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $2 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $5 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $2 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records