Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x781a…96e6 crypto 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96,945 (+551%) realized +$98,397 · open −$1,452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%132W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day230.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$316
other 8% −$1,452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.0% +9.5% 44% 44% +37.8%
≤30d 293 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 293 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 36% -11.1%
all 293 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 36% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 32% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 26% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$33 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$98,397
Unrealized−$1,452
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses132 / 161
Open positions3
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day230.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $47 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 85¢ 1¢ $857 $14 −$843 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 62¢ 1¢ $620 $7 −$612 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $244 −$231 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $251 −$242 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $188 +$373 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $339 −$328 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $441 +$1,073 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $156 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $278 +$431 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $144 −$136 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$13 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$19 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $39 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $86 −$42 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $95 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $95 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $29 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $76 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $93 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $95 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $94 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $94 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $23 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $94 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.31 · official $71.96 (match) · 3500 history records