Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x781c…f4d9 crypto 1393 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$566 (-7%) realized −$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%640W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$44
14 days−$60
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$741
other 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 397 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 47% -14.1%
≤90d 1393 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 44% -17.6%
all 1393 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 44% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 40% -25.5%
15% -30.4% 35% -32.7%
20% -37.2% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses640 / 753
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1393 / 1393
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1393 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$43 +201%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $237 +$92 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$132 +126%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$94 +302%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$17 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$24 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$6 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$35 +168%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +135%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +322%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +272%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$10 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +120%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +69%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -72%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $162 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $122 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $132 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $115 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $106 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $236 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $105 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records