Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7820…0797 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$785 (-12%) realized −$766 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$48
14 days−$841
30 days−$841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$619
other 34% −$153
crypto 2% −$17
world 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.1% -15.9% 55% 55% -4.7%
≤30d 59 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 49% -22.1%
≤90d 59 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 49% -22.1%
all 59 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 49% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -22.1%
10% -28.7% 42% -29.6%
15% -35.6% 37% -36.4%
20% -41.9% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$87 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized−$766
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions11
Markets (closed)59 / 70
History coverage14d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 36¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $181 +$36 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $151 +$30 +20%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$53 +172%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 +$13 +26%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $262 −$262 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $222 +$88 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $162 +$105 +65%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$113 +442%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$59 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $181 +$36 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $212 +$68 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$34 +83%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $162 +$109 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $222 +$106 +48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $221 +$35 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $71 46h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $101 46h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Canada 83¢ $151 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $181 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 47h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 10¢ $4 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $10 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $10 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 30¢ $31 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $31 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $48 7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $50 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $91 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $222 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $162 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $71 9d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $141 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.61 · official $616.61 (match) · 151 history records