Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7820…5723 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,276 (+5%) realized −$3,277 · open +$1,053
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$711per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$15,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$1,705
30 days−$2,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$258
world 40% −$1,075
other 6% −$1,141
sports 1% +$28
culture 1% +$206
tech 0% +$9
finance 0% +$3
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.2% -60.3% 25% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 39 -30.2% -36.8% 36% 26% -20.2%
≤90d 52 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 21% -21.0%
all 52 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 21% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 21% -21.0%
10% -44.1% 15% -28.6%
15% -49.5% 13% -35.5%
20% -54.4% 10% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$179 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$15,345
Realized−$3,277
Unrealized+$1,053
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions19
Markets (closed)52 / 71
History coverage44d
Avg bet$711
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 71¢ $6,999 $8,116 +$1,117 (+16%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 70¢ 81¢ $3,925 $4,538 +$613 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes $661 $861 +$201 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 81¢ 97¢ $407 $487 +$80 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 12¢ $503 $342 −$160 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 11¢ $575 $253 −$322 (-56%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $225 $233 +$8 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $359 $116 −$243 (-68%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $106 $115 +$9 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $128 $106 −$23 (-18%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 12¢ $202 $74 −$127 (-63%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $32 $48 +$16 (+51%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes $130 $36 −$94 (-73%)
Will Rudy Moise be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? Yes $5 $8 +$4 (+79%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes $16 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes $12 $3 −$9 (-72%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes $7 $2 −$5 (-76%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Yes $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? No 28¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? No 54¢ $498 $0 −$498 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? No 10¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $348 +$33 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $159 −$54 -34%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Reina Goto Jun 06 $198 −$32 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 +$31 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $2,551 +$181 +7%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 in June? Jun 04 $285 −$278 -98%
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Jun 04 $93 +$4 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 04 $96 −$10 -11%
Will BNB dip to $600 in June? Jun 04 $520 −$515 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $305 −$195 -64%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 04 $501 −$332 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $542 −$170 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $73 −$69 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $9 +$3 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $833 −$595 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,490 +$298 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 30 $171 −$150 -88%
Bitcoin above 73,600 on May 29, 9PM ET? May 30 $1,128 +$168 +15%
Bitcoin above 73,200 on May 29, 8PM ET? May 30 $567 −$268 -47%
Bitcoin above 73,600 on May 29, 8PM ET? May 30 $776 +$42 +5%
Bitcoin above 73,200 on May 29, 9PM ET? May 30 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin above 74,200 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $208 +$52 +25%
Bitcoin above 74,000 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $761 +$393 +52%
Bitcoin above 73,800 on May 29, 3PM ET? May 29 $1,231 +$123 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $1,760 +$302 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 29 $85 −$80 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $2,686 −$748 -28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $7,737 −$868 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $2,900 −$1 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May? May 28 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 28 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $126 +$412 +328%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? May 28 $3 +$2 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $205 −$181 -88%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $78 −$18 -23%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? May 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 11 $318 +$225 +71%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 11 $157 −$86 -55%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May May 09 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 09 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 09 $142 −$133 -94%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes T May 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 08 $664 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 5, 6PM ET? May 07 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above 82,800 on May 6, 10AM ET? May 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin above 80,600 on May 5, 8PM ET? May 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 5m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 13m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 13m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 22m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 22m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 22m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 22m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 51m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 52m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,344.71 · official $15,344.71 (match) · 853 history records