Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x7820…fa12 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$98 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate71%46W / 19L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 604d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$139
tech 20% −$2,408
politics 9% +$6
other 3% −$71
world 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 1 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 5 -58.6% -62.6% 40% 0% -50.2%
all 65 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 11% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 11% -20.6%
10% -21.3% 3% -28.2%
15% -28.9% 3% -35.1%
20% -35.9% 3% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$224 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$3,116
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses46 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)65 / 74
History coverage604d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,186 $1,185 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,181 $1,175 −$6 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $360 $365 +$5 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 75¢ 93¢ $112 $140 +$28 (+25%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 78¢ 64¢ $117 $97 −$20 (-17%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $48 $58 +$10 (+21%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 92¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,312 +$39 +3%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 24 $1,200 −$1,199 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Apr 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $25 −$9 -37%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 25 $1,190 −$1,185 -100%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 Feb 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $1,180 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $18 +$2 +9%
Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $301 +$33 +11%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $526 +$1 +0%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatb Jan 23 $65 −$2 -3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jan 20 $200 $0 +0%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jan 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 16 $525 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 02 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Jan 02 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? Jan 02 $128 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $696 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $702 +$53 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 03 $184 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 03 $500 +$7 +1%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $181 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $644 +$4 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 02 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 02 $600 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110,000 on September 24 at 12A Sep 24 $106 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Sep 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Sep 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Sep 24 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 03 $117 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 29 $232 −$12 -5%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Aug 29 $1,100 −$106 -10%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 02 $42 +$1 +2%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Aug 02 $46 +$28 +61%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jul 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $195 +$37 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,184 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,005 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes $33 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes $38 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,351 15h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $187 4d
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $94 31d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $360 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,312 57d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes $1 104d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes $0 104d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes $1 106d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes $7 107d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes $2 107d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 115d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $4 115d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $7 115d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes $17 119d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,115.81 · official $3,115.66 (match) · 272 history records