Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7825…1b61 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$143 (-26%) realized −$142 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$7
sports 23% −$26
crypto 23% −$63
world 16% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 38% -20.8%
≤30d 8 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 38% -20.8%
≤90d 23 -29.0% -35.8% 30% 26% -32.9%
all 24 -32.0% -38.5% 29% 25% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 25% -46.1%
10% -44.4% 21% -51.2%
15% -49.7% 21% -55.9%
20% -54.7% 21% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage148d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$14 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 +$46 +211%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 +$27 +131%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $14 −$10 -74%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $7 +$6 +77%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 13 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 13 $11 +$19 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? Jan 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $82 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $68 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $68 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $49 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $48 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $21 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $21 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 43¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.04 · official $80.04 (match) · 53 history records