Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7826…20b1 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+1%) realized +$116 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%42W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$150
14 days−$70
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$271
sports 25% −$573
culture 4% +$903
world 4% −$400
politics 2% −$245
crypto 2% +$171
economics 2% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +126.0% +104.5% 40% 40% +70.7%
≤90d 5 +126.0% +104.5% 40% 40% +70.7%
all 118 +19.7% +8.3% 36% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 35% -10.9%
10% -2.0% 34% -19.4%
15% -11.5% 34% -27.2%
20% -20.2% 32% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$70 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses42 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)118 / 124
History coverage300d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$80 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $40 +$293 +733%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Jan 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $100 +$5 +4%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jan 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 11 $40 +$63 +156%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Dec 10 $40 +$61 +153%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $40 +$51 +127%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $40 +$108 +270%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $40 +$114 +285%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Newcastle (-1.5) Dec 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Dec 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 20 $40 −$36 -90%
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidenti Nov 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev Oct 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Corentin Moutet vs Alexander Bublik Oct 30 $200 +$123 +61%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Oct 29 $240 −$9 -4%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? Oct 29 $400 −$5 -1%
Rolex Paris Masters: Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniil Medvedev Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Arthur Cazaux Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Oct 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $120 +$106 +89%
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes? Oct 25 $400 +$807 +202%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-23? Oct 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? Oct 23 $100 +$52 +52%
Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Oct 23 $100 +$61 +61%
FC Bayern München vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Oct 23 $200 +$117 +59%
Galatasaray SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Oct 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 3.5 Oct 22 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $121 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $41 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 28d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 28d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside BUY No $105 151d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 23¢ $105 151d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 52¢ $184 159d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 191d
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? BUY No $20 192d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 201d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 201d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes $40 201d
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 201d
Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) BUY Qarabağ Ağdam FK 25¢ $60 201d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $100 201d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $101 201d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 201d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 201d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 201d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes $20 201d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 201d
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 201d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.44 · official $192.44 (match) · 214 history records