Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:51:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7828…e558 crypto 381 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,712 (-5%) realized −$1,568 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%159W / 214L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$975
7 days+$975
14 days+$58
30 days−$1,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$1,596
other 9% +$54
crypto 8% −$60
finance 1% −$98
sports 1% +$53
tech 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 40% +0.7%
≤30d 29 +48.9% +34.7% 62% 24% -13.2%
≤90d 33 +45.9% +32.0% 64% 30% -12.8%
all 373 -4.9% -14.0% 43% 39% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 39% -12.8%
10% -22.2% 35% -21.1%
15% -29.7% 31% -28.7%
20% -36.6% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$25 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$855
Realized−$1,568
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses159 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)373 / 381
History coverage136d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $489 $412 −$76 (-16%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 89¢ 90¢ $338 $340 +$2 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 24¢ 66¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $43 $2 −$41 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $275 +$51 +19%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 29 $494 +$2 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2,315 +$50 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $5,489 +$871 +16%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 20 $167 +$1 +0%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 18 $885 −$788 -89%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,962 −$161 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5,955 +$134 +2%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$35 -71%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 15 $101 −$32 -31%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $1,294 −$992 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $802 −$487 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,770 −$1,313 -74%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $193 +$11 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 10 $300 +$4 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $590 −$30 -5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $342 +$16 +5%
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $1,374 +$53 +4%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +374%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $577 +$433 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,411 +$794 +23%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $3,313 −$184 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 11 $278 +$116 +42%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 30 $79 +$8 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $53 +$26 +49%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 19 $6 +$6 +111%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 95¢ $252 4m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 76¢ $203 26m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 21¢ $47 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 21¢ $5 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 21¢ $1 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 20¢ $31 46m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 21¢ $21 48m
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 81¢ $90 53m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 18¢ $22 54m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 16¢ $20 59m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 19¢ $53 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 19¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 18¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $125 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $685 2h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1,495 2h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $184 2h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $313 5h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 89¢ $93 5h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $494 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $645 5h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1,708 5h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $607 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,533 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $854.57 · official $854.57 (match) · 1301 history records