Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7829…cfd3 sports 367 markets active 5d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,807 (-3%) realized −$6,807 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%136W / 231L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$4,522est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7,742
14 days+$10,670
30 days+$3,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$12,511
other 1% +$4,312
world 0% −$1,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +39.0% +25.7% 60% 60% +78.5%
≤30d 136 +3.3% -6.5% 37% 36% -4.4%
≤90d 367 -6.0% -14.9% 37% 36% -12.8%
all 367 -6.0% -14.9% 37% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 36% -12.8%
10% -23.1% 36% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -30.5% 34% -28.7%
20% -37.3% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$645) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$969 vs −$611 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,807
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses136 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$4,522
Open positions0
Markets (closed)367 / 367
History coverage74d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 367 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $200 +$25 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$349 +69%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $342 −$336 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,021 −$2,017 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,026 −$1,006 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $192 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $360 +$478 +133%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $348 +$507 +146%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,892 +$9,837 +340%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $475 −$475 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $374 +$426 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $475 −$465 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $197 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $135 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $64 +$136 +212%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $136 +$124 +91%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $353 +$297 +84%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $374 +$481 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $176 −$176 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,802 +$1,898 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,158 +$1,642 +142%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,227 +$885 +40%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,290 −$1,282 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $440 −$440 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $420 +$748 +178%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $25 −$1 -5%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $165 −$118 -72%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $187 −$165 -88%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli Jun 06 $185 −$185 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 06 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $252 −$252 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $279 −$279 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $133 −$133 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 6¢ $4 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $86 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $110 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $506 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $342 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $1,399 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $139 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $12 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $4 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $3 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $68 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $4 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $20 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $62 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $55 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $7 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $1 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $4 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $41 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $201 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 34¢ $1,026 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $34 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $159 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 41¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $355 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 40¢ $348 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 48¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2799 history records