Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x782b…a8ad
crypto · 232 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,485 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,485 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses97 / 135
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage70d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 0 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$960
7 days−$624
14 days−$640
30 days−$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $85 −$54 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$14 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $68 +$36 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$13 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$14 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$22 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$12 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$28 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$32 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$102 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $81 −$60 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$22 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $60 +$11 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$1,263
world 13% −$209
other 9% −$193
sports 2% +$263
economics 1% −$81
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $15 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $69 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $23 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $52 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $37 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -15.2% -23.3% 47% 40% -17.8%
≤30d 153 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 38% -16.0%
≤90d 232 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 34% -17.1%
all 232 -20.3% -27.9% 42% 34% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 34% -17.1%
10% -34.8% 29% -25.0%
15% -41.1% 20% -32.2%
20% -46.9% 13% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 678 history records