Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x782d…8211 sports 1399 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$804 (-1%) realized −$824 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%858W / 533L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$700est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$634
7 days+$1,845
14 days+$1,699
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,243
other 3% −$317
crypto 0% −$14
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 56% +1.7%
≤30d 445 -9.1% -17.7% 55% 53% -10.5%
≤90d 1076 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 58% -11.2%
all 1391 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 58% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 58% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 50% -19.7%
15% -26.9% 41% -27.4%
20% -34.1% 31% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$968
Realized−$824
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses858 / 533
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$700
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1391 / 1399
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 42¢ 87¢ $112 $233 +$120 (+107%)
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 67¢ 100¢ $117 $175 +$58 (+49%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 66¢ 80¢ $121 $148 +$27 (+22%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 59¢ 64¢ $111 $122 +$10 (+9%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 51¢ 54¢ $109 $115 +$6 (+6%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 0¢ 38¢ $0 $107 +$107 (+0%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 52¢ 24¢ $85 $38 −$46 (-55%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 61¢ 16¢ $120 $31 −$90 (-75%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 55¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $100 +$121 +121%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $158 +$154 +97%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $319 −$315 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $148 +$138 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $161 −$161 -100%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $116 +$122 +105%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $121 +$82 +68%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $591 +$643 +109%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $118 +$107 +91%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $85 +$113 +134%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $124 +$59 +48%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $131 +$75 +57%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $94 +$93 +99%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $88 +$105 +119%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $50 +$27 +55%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $91 +$72 +79%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $93 +$84 +90%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $715 +$434 +61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $79 +$102 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 +$155 +76%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $106 +$99 +93%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $86 +$29 +34%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $80 +$54 +67%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $95 +$97 +102%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $91 +$87 +96%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $56 +$67 +119%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $87 +$44 +50%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $94 +$69 +73%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $127 +$54 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $89 +$81 +92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 61¢ $122 25m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 42¢ $114 31m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 66¢ $122 35m
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 59¢ $113 1h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 67¢ $118 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 50¢ $93 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 51¢ $111 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 45¢ $100 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 58¢ $150 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 57¢ $58 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 55¢ $111 2h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 50¢ $158 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 67¢ $36 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 52¢ $34 3h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 52¢ $105 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 13h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 51¢ $148 14h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 48¢ $116 16h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 52¢ $162 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 17h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 62¢ $161 17h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 44¢ $86 18h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 52¢ $86 18h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 60¢ $90 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 51¢ $16 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 50¢ $18 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 49¢ $20 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 46¢ $73 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 46¢ $102 19h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 42¢ $83 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $968.38 · official $968.38 (match) · 3500 history records