Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
78 0x782e…625e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$24
other 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -3.3%
≤30d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -3.3%
≤90d 6 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -3.3%
all 6 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 17% -3.3%
10% -14.9% 0% -12.5%
15% -23.1% 0% -21.0%
20% -30.7% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.57 per $1 lost it wins $5.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 97¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 +$11 +22%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $60 +$2 +3%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $75 +$6 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.57 · official $124.57 · 16 history records