Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x782f…b46a sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,925 (-24%) realized −$1,916 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,909
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.0% -52.0% 33% 17% -27.0%
≤30d 6 -47.0% -52.0% 33% 17% -27.0%
≤90d 33 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 61% -20.0%
all 73 -13.1% -21.3% 51% 49% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 49% -30.8%
10% -28.9% 45% -37.4%
15% -35.7% 38% -43.5%
20% -42.0% 27% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$112 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,916
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage96d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $178 +$14 +8%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 +$10 +47%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $16 −$6 -37%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 15 $13 +$6 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $8 +$7 +89%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $23 +$9 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $6 +$17 +291%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 12 $3 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 12 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 01 $11 +$4 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 01 $9 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $6 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $4 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $2 +$2 +123%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $212 +$50 +23%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $126 +$86 +69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Mar 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $40 +$27 +66%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $149 +$53 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Mar 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $300 −$228 -76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $450 +$181 +40%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $300 +$267 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $192 9m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 19¢ $9 26m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $30 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $30 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 64¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 64¢ $8 30h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick SELL largadosypelados 50¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 78¢ $16 34h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 74¢ $33 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $5 39d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5 39d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $5 39d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $5 39d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $3 39d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $11 40d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $11 40d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Tundra Esports 67¢ $8 40d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 40d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 40d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $30 41d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $30 41d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 63¢ $19 41d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $19 41d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $13 41d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $8 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 175 history records