Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7832…4ec9 other 220 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$476 (-15%) realized −$425 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%75W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$180
14 days−$151
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$231
world 34% −$30
politics 13% −$43
sports 6% +$48
crypto 3% +$23
tech 1% −$11
culture 1% −$3
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -38.3% -44.2% 31% 17% -46.7%
≤30d 121 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 21% -24.8%
≤90d 160 -13.4% -21.7% 38% 21% -25.5%
all 189 -11.5% -19.9% 40% 24% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 24% -20.4%
10% -27.6% 20% -28.0%
15% -34.6% 17% -35.0%
20% -41.0% 12% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized−$425
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses75 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)189 / 220
History coverage371d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $91 $75 −$16 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $46 $73 +$28 (+61%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $66 $60 −$7 (-10%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 24¢ 16¢ $81 $56 −$25 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $39 −$6 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $28 −$15 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $27 +$10 (+59%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 90¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+63%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 31¢ 20¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 84¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 63¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 44¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 13¢ $22 $5 −$17 (-75%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+97%)
Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 95¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 25 $15 −$12 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $9 +$5 +50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 25 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $34 −$28 -83%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $47 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $67 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 $0 -15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$8 +307%
Will Pedri win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $118 +$3 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +6%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +291%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $22 +$28 +122%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dean Huijsen be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Dominic Solanke be included in England's official 2026 World Cup Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$4 +60%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $8 $0 +5%
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 03 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $29 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $0 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 5h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 5h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 5h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 7h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 7h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 8h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 8h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 8h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 69¢ $18 9h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 69¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL 9INE 69¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 34¢ $16 9h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 44¢ $9 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.05 · official $636.20 · 1009 history records