Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7834…0f4b other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$137 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$503per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$30
crypto 28% +$2
sports 21% +$34
world 14% +$2
tech 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 75% 25% -13.3%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 17% -11.9%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 8% -10.5%
all 15 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -10.1%
10% -17.7% 7% -18.7%
15% -25.7% 7% -26.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$224 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage99d
Avg bet$503
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $487 $601 +$114 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $489 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $350 +$139 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $572 −$224 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 01 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $569 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $564 +$6 +1%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 03 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $563 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $535 +$28 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? Mar 14 $534 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $489 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $489 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $350 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $349 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $572 28h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $570 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $540 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $572 24d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $570 43d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 51d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 51d
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 BUY No 100¢ $569 63d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 99¢ $564 70d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 100¢ $563 77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $563 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 95¢ $535 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $534 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.56 · official $600.56 (match) · 32 history records