Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x7835…4ad1 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$871 (-1%) realized −$871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$611per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$170
politics 30% −$33
sports 5% −$636
economics 5% −$3
world 2% −$41
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 0% -10.2%
all 135 -8.7% -17.4% 18% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 8% -10.5%
10% -25.3% 7% -19.1%
15% -32.5% 7% -26.9%
20% -39.2% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$928) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage159d
Avg bet$611
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $802 $802 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $608 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,929 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,778 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $978 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $810 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $544 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $827 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,126 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,922 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,068 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $539 −$1 -0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $417 −$417 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $855 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 28 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $1,877 −$5 -0%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $836 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $607 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $608 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $802 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $967 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $968 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $977 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $978 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,031 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,357 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $809 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $810 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,360 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,307 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.70 · official $801.70 (match) · 401 history records