trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 40% | 7% | -12.1% |
| all | 28 | +5.6% | -4.4% | 61% | 14% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.4% | 14% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -13.6% | 11% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -21.9% | 4% | -24.8% |
| 20% | -29.6% | 4% | -32.1% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $30 | +$8 | +26% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $28 | +$2 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $38 | −$11 | -29% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $3 | $0 | -8% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 22 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $55 | −$13 | -24% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 23 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Albania beat England | Mar 22 | $38 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 2-3m on opening weekend? | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | +33% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 21 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? | Mar 21 | $18 | +$22 | +117% |
| Monmouth vs. Drexel | Mar 04 | $15 | +$3 | +22% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Mar 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Little Rock vs. Eastern Illinois | Feb 28 | $15 | $0 | -1% |