Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7837…8f97 other 20 markets active 5h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (401 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,190 (+3%) realized +$1,796 · open −$606
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,136per market
Trades / day401.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$9,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$519
crypto 15% −$18
world 9% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 14% -8.6%
≤30d 7 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 7 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 14% -8.6%
all 7 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover401.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 14% -8.6%
10% -27.3% 0% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -34.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -40.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
36.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$96 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9,698
Realized+$1,796
Unrealized−$606
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)7 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,136
Trades / day401.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $1,976 $1,963 −$13 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,793 $1,780 −$13 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 56¢ $1,844 $1,693 −$152 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1,550 $1,532 −$18 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 36¢ $1,214 $744 −$470 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 87¢ $521 $556 +$35 (+7%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $351 $336 −$15 (-4%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $316 $331 +$15 (+5%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $253 $242 −$11 (-5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 22¢ $244 $239 −$5 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 55¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $54 $69 +$15 (+27%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-6%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $168 $32 −$137 (-81%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,216 +$255 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $488 +$12 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,674 −$226 -8%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $185 −$126 -68%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,797 +$201 +7%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $214 −$14 -6%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $113 −$18 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $12 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $108 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $230 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 6h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $255 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 6h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $263 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $317 6h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $7 6h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $6 6h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $14 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,697.86 · official $9,697.86 (match) · 837 history records