Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7838…3e84 sports 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182 (-3%) realized −$142 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%87W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$156
sports 30% −$248
world 16% −$41
finance 10% +$111
crypto 3% +$91
politics 3% +$6
tech 3% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 4 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 50% -0.1%
≤90d 134 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 47% -16.4%
all 143 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 50% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 50% -12.3%
10% -14.2% 44% -20.7%
15% -22.5% 37% -28.4%
20% -30.1% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses87 / 56
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage121d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 51¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? Yes $42 $1 −$41 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$14 +70%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$23 +114%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $10 +$2 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 +$4 +73%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +105%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $15 −$15 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $317 −$63 -20%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $41 +$35 +86%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 14 $20 −$20 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $78 +$4 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 14 $56 −$44 -79%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$40 +388%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $30 +$15 +50%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $69 −$17 -24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $212 −$68 -32%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $134 −$3 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 03 $70 $0 +0%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $41 −$40 -98%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 01 $18 +$25 +134%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $30 +$9 +29%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $228 −$46 -20%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $62 −$31 -49%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 +$9 +44%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? Apr 25 $81 +$11 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 23 $176 −$97 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 22 $51 +$7 +13%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $29 −$29 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $179 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $30 +$9 +30%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Sco Apr 19 $20 +$13 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $94 +$7 +7%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Apr 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $13 32d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $10 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $13 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 34d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 34d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 37d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $31 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $10 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $10 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $4 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $16 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 57¢ $3 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $11 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $9 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $11 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $4 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $12 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $11 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $6 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Up 68¢ $11 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 65¢ $19 39d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 65¢ $9 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.52 · official $51.52 (match) · 424 history records