Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x783a…4ae6 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$1
other 24% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 9% $0
world 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage106d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $90 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $87 13h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 12d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $87 19d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 20d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 27d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 32d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $88 36d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $88 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 38d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $88 39d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 40d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $88 40d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 61d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 62d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 65d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $89 69d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $90 69d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $90 70d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $90 71d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 77d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records