Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x783b…2078 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,253 (-11%) realized −$1,253 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$53
14 days−$26
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$2
economics 22% −$856
politics 14% +$93
crypto 13% −$72
world 7% −$343
sports 7% −$97
finance 4% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 5 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 60% -0.0%
≤90d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 56% 44% -36.1%
all 28 -16.7% -24.6% 71% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 25% -19.6%
10% -31.8% 21% -27.3%
15% -38.4% 14% -34.3%
20% -44.4% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$254 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$1,253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage238d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 +$53 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $79 −$78 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $60 −$59 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $105 +$71 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 05 $152 +$63 +42%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $396 −$396 -100%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 03 $103 −$101 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 03 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 03 $456 +$22 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $431 +$53 +12%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $399 +$32 +8%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 11 $392 +$7 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $371 +$21 +6%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 15 $363 +$8 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jan 05 $350 +$13 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 03 $1,020 +$230 +22%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 18 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k November 3-9? Nov 18 $4 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 18 $197 +$56 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 18 $1,102 +$15 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,218 +$86 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $27 $0 +2%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $1,302 +$20 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $59 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,220 +$22 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $75 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $79 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $60 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $105 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $152 34d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 96¢ $396 77d
Timberwolves vs. 76ers BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $103 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $456 98d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $11 98d
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 98d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 89¢ $431 109d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $399 131d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY No 98¢ $392 139d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $371 158d
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $363 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $350 186d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $337 199d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $563 201d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? BUY No 82¢ $578 215d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? BUY No 82¢ $442 215d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $33 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $32 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $2 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $0 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $46 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $62 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $29 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $20 216d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY Yes $39 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.35 · official $57.35 (match) · 64 history records