Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x783d…9a35 finance 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$72 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$472
14 days+$739
30 days+$734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 52% −$50
finance 43% +$795
politics 3% −$26
world 2% −$25
other 1% −$14
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.6% +44.4% 50% 50% +78.9%
≤30d 6 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 50% +69.2%
≤90d 16 -4.7% -13.8% 38% 38% +55.9%
all 18 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 33% +55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 33% +55.7%
10% -25.5% 33% +40.8%
15% -32.7% 33% +27.2%
20% -39.3% 33% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +72% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$7 · ×17.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.07 per $1 lost it wins $11.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$621
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage114d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $96 −$3 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 17 $387 +$475 +123%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $314 +$238 +76%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $42 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $31 −$24 -76%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $5 +$13 +269%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$1 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 08 $65 +$33 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $19 +$15 +79%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 06 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $48 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $44 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $6 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $2 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $13 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $18 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $44 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $51 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $5 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 25¢ $24 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 25¢ $3 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 24¢ $75 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $22 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $0 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $9 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $121 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $7 11h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $13 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $44 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 52¢ $355 26h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 26¢ $92 26h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $40 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $8 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $53 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $8 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.59 · official $620.59 (match) · 106 history records