Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x783e…2ead sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,292 (+21%) realized +$1,292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip
Net edge+88%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$1,031per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,686
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+103.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +124.5% +103.2% 83% 50% +29.8%
≤30d 6 +124.5% +103.2% 83% 50% +29.8%
≤90d 6 +124.5% +103.2% 83% 50% +29.8%
all 6 +124.5% +103.2% 83% 50% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +103.2% 50% +29.8%
10% +83.7% 33% +17.3%
15% +66.0% 33% +6.0%
20% +49.7% 33% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +125% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$56 · ×9.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.15 per $1 lost it wins $49.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,031
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $2,001 +$189 +9%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $1,400 +$176 +13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $2,193 +$161 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $237 +$874 +368%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $298 +$1,341 +449%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $913 14m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $22 19m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $1,147 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $107 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 91¢ $2,001 54m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 79¢ $1,503 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 85¢ $73 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $1,116 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $97 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $35 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $35 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $12 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $35 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $35 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $35 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $2,309 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $40 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 92¢ $2,193 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,112 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $12 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $225 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,639 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $297 30h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records