Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7840…153a other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
politics 23% −$7
sports 16% −$55
tech 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage132d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $311 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $534 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $345 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $357 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $388 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $146 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $164 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 28 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $352 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $350 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $154 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 36h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 23d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 28d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $134 30d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $134 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 34d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 39d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 40d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 40d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 40d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $174 46d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $166 46d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $166 46d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 47d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 47d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 47d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 48d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 48d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 48d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 48d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 48d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $167 48d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $167 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $192 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $192 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.96 · official $52.96 (match) · 374 history records