Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
78 0x7842…4d91 other 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,454 (+23%) realized +$11,229 · open +$225
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%195W / 174L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$693
14 days+$554
30 days+$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$3,714
sports 20% +$995
world 19% +$238
tech 8% +$1,321
crypto 5% +$797
politics 4% −$127
finance 2% −$93
culture 1% −$80
weather 0% +$19
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +98.0% +79.2% 68% 56% +35.7%
≤30d 90 +54.3% +39.6% 47% 37% -3.4%
≤90d 223 +45.0% +31.2% 56% 44% +0.3%
all 369 +43.1% +29.5% 53% 43% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.5% 43% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here +17.1% 37% -6.8%
15% +5.8% 32% -15.8%
20% -4.6% 28% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$53 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$2,595
Realized+$11,229
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses195 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions42
Markets (closed)369 / 409
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 76¢ $321 $581 +$260 (+81%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 28¢ 30¢ $276 $294 +$18 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 81¢ $175 $209 +$34 (+20%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $178 $182 +$3 (+2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Salah 46¢ 58¢ $138 $174 +$36 (+26%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 32¢ $158 $126 −$32 (-20%)
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 54¢ $75 $126 +$51 (+67%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $112 $95 −$17 (-15%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 36¢ 76¢ $43 $89 +$46 (+108%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 36¢ 26¢ $108 $76 −$32 (-29%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $31 $48 +$18 (+56%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $51 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $39 +$2 (+7%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ $51 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $46 $33 −$13 (-28%)
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 48¢ $17 $32 +$16 (+94%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 84¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 28¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 10¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-24%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $44 $18 −$26 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 +$48 +134%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $44 +$10 +23%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 +$52 +108%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $55 +$95 +173%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $72 +$128 +178%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $77 −$11 -14%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 16 $100 +$171 +172%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +900%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$35 +106%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 15 $195 +$186 +96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $31 +$48 +154%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Rodri be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $6 +$36 +642%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $65 +$45 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 −$18 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $255 −$15 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $169 +$14 +8%
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +112%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $45 +$115 +256%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 11 $108 −$6 -5%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $80 −$7 -9%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $57 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $396 +$30 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$21 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$72 -92%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $352 −$79 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $244 +$41 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $110 +$30 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $123 −$66 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $300 −$12 -4%
Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 05 $42 +$40 +96%
Will Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 05 $7 +$8 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $15 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $55 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 46¢ $35 2h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 19h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $55 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $24 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $153 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 20¢ $0 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 20¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 21¢ $21 26h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 22¢ $17 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 22¢ $5 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 26h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,595.24 · official $2,594.98 (match) · 3500 history records