Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7843…7f7d sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$290 (-13%) realized −$288 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%71W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$53
14 days−$10
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$310
other 5% +$13
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -47.7% -52.7% 22% 22% -16.4%
≤30d 81 -19.6% -27.2% 32% 32% -14.2%
≤90d 183 -8.1% -16.8% 39% 39% -22.2%
all 183 -8.1% -16.8% 39% 39% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 39% -22.2%
10% -24.8% 39% -29.6%
15% -32.1% 37% -36.4%
20% -38.7% 29% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses71 / 112
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)183 / 186
History coverage46d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$101 +164%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $26 +$30 +119%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$38 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $94 +$71 +76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $61 +$76 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$51 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$51 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 +$23 +550%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 +$7 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$15 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $21 +$14 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$29 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$51 +165%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner May 29 $4 +$11 +257%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $26 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $25 29h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $36 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 42h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $26 2d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $49 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $35 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $31 3d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $94 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $26 6d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 6d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $21 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $31 6d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.47 · official $73.47 (match) · 313 history records