Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7845…7650 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 16% −$3
politics 12% −$3
economics 11% $0
sports 11% +$2
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 56 -2.9% -12.2% 36% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage527d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $88 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $115 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $148 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $23 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $60 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $17 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $41 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $225 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $220 −$3 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $3 $0 +8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Dec 10 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 29 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $36 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $36 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $34 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $32 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.99 · official $36.12 (match) · 200 history records