Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x784a…25da crypto 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%246W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day259.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$428
other 3% +$15
weather 0% +$11
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 52% -13.7%
≤30d 397 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 52% -13.7%
≤90d 397 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 52% -13.7%
all 397 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 52% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover259.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 52% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 40% -21.9%
15% -29.2% 27% -29.5%
20% -36.1% 16% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses246 / 151
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)397 / 406
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day259.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $462 +$36 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $441 +$48 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $159 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $93 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $85 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$45 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$19 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $168 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $110 −$21 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $78 +$42 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $90 −$82 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $159 −$128 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $201 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $155 +$49 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $115 +$41 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $179 −$104 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $372 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $170 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $187 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$69 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$7 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $253 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $462 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.48 · official $114.49 (match) · 1284 history records