Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x784a…06c3
weather · 1317 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$13,612 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,001 · open +$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$310
Realized−$11,001
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses931 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1335 / 1317
History coverage25d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day128.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 1335 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,984
7 days−$3,338
14 days−$3,809
30 days−$11,001
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 65¢ 88¢ $74 $99 +$25 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 85¢ 84¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 25? Yes 97¢ 0¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Martin Landaluce 61¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? No 15¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 27? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Granada CF vs. Burgos CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$25 -164%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 17? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $256 −$257 -101%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $52 −$53 -102%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 14 $10 −$158 -1583%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$49 -4859%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 14 $30 −$131 -434%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Rangers FC vs. Hibernian FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $275 +$28 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $191 −$44 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $71 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $115 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $54 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $29 +$44 +151%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $164 −$12 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $51 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $385 −$181 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$79 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$97 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $125 −$90 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$98 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $377 −$357 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 69% −$9,165
crypto 26% −$402
other 2% +$1,112
sports 2% −$475
finance 0% +$68
world 0% +$7
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $57 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 17m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 35¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 97¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $207 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $75 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 41¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $124 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $58 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $98 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $29 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $56 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $37 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -22.6% -30.0% 53% 21% -18.7%
≤30d 1335 -10.6% -19.1% 70% 23% -13.5%
≤90d 1335 -10.6% -19.1% 70% 23% -13.5%
all 1335 -10.6% -19.1% 70% 23% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover128.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 23% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 10% -21.7%
15% -33.9% 5% -29.3%
20% -40.4% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.30 · official $310.30 (match) · 3500 history records