Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x784e…e3d6 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$11
politics 24% +$1
other 16% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 29 +1.8% -7.9% 31% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 71 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 3% -9.1%
all 83 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage321d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $81 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 +$14 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $39 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $32 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $95 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $28 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $47 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $47 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $42 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records