Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x7851…d471 sports 491 markets active 1h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,136 (-2%) realized −$3,146 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%244W / 241L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1,004est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,308
7 days+$2,308
14 days+$2,308
30 days+$1,929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,975
politics 4% −$5,764
other 3% −$1,822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 50% +21.7%
≤30d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 46% 46% +9.9%
≤90d 224 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -5.3%
all 485 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% -11.6%
10% -15.7% 50% -20.1%
15% -23.8% 50% -27.8%
20% -31.3% 50% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$314 vs −$334 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$1,284
Realized−$3,146
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses244 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,004
Open positions6
Markets (closed)485 / 491
History coverage700d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $378 $360 −$18 (-5%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 42¢ $315 $298 −$18 (-6%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 58¢ $235 $290 +$55 (+23%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 56¢ $171 $166 −$4 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $99 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 36¢ $76 $72 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $625 +$675 +108%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $264 −$264 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $806 +$694 +86%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $752 +$648 +86%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $271 −$266 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $292 −$287 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $257 −$252 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $274 −$270 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $125 +$175 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $378 +$322 +85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $232 −$228 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $215 +$185 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $536 +$564 +105%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 23 $367 +$632 +172%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $118 −$115 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $738 +$561 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $374 −$368 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $264 −$260 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $199 −$195 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $322 +$278 +86%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 02 $298 −$294 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 02 $321 −$315 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $537 +$463 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 27 $155 +$145 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 24 $484 −$477 -99%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 24 $437 −$430 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $390 −$385 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $414 −$408 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $508 +$492 +97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 21 $441 −$441 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 21 $558 −$550 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $199 +$301 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 20 $309 −$306 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 May 20 $304 −$300 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $359 −$352 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $475 −$468 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $527 +$473 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $406 −$406 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $236 +$464 +197%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $304 +$296 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 18 $362 −$357 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $527 +$473 +90%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $341 +$359 +105%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 18 $322 +$278 +86%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $334 −$329 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 May 17 $259 −$255 -99%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 17 $477 −$468 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) May 17 $220 +$380 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $77 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $101 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $239 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $383 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $320 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $173 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $141 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $240 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $264 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 17h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $227 17h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $484 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $322 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $271 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $752 23h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $292 23h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 36¢ $257 23h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $274 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $75 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $228 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $4 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $55 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $125 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $16 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $232 27h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $215 40h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $999 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.00 · official $1,284.00 (match) · 956 history records