Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7852…3a25 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$119 (-7%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,435
sports 5% −$80
weather 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -49.0% -53.9% 25% 25% -93.2%
≤30d 12 -49.0% -53.9% 25% 25% -93.2%
≤90d 12 -49.0% -53.9% 25% 25% -93.2%
all 12 -49.0% -53.9% 25% 25% -93.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.9% 25% -93.2%
10% ← realistic here -58.3% 17% -93.9%
15% -62.3% 17% -94.5%
20% -66.0% 17% -95.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$170 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,219 −$1,100 -90%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $338 −$237 -70%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$30 +150%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +112%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $74 −$62 -84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 29m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 30m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $6 30m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 32m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $8 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 35m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 39m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 39m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $18 40m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 40m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $89 40m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 40m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 40m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $30 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $120 42m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $30 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $58 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $68 43m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 43m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 43m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 43m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $135 44m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records