Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x7853…36d8 other 343 markets active 202d ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74,282 (-84%) realized −$74,537 · open +$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%265W / 160L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7,298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$4,446
world 27% +$14,657
politics 21% +$17,886
economics 9% +$2,451
tech 6% +$3,390
crypto 5% +$20,627
sports 2% +$345
culture 2% +$2,250
finance 0% +$483
weather 0% +$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+73.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +126.3% +104.7% 32% 27% +9.4%
≤30d 75 +126.3% +104.7% 32% 27% +9.4%
≤90d 75 +126.3% +104.7% 32% 27% +9.4%
all 425 +91.6% +73.3% 62% 49% +57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.3% 49% +57.4%
10% ← realistic here +56.7% 40% +42.3%
15% +41.6% 35% +28.6%
20% +27.7% 31% +16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -91% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +75% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$75 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$7,298
Realized−$74,537
Unrealized+$255
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses265 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)425 / 343
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $800 $882 +$82 (+10%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 55¢ 88¢ $500 $801 +$301 (+60%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 97¢ $695 $725 +$30 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 78¢ 56¢ $405 $293 −$112 (-28%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? No 86¢ 93¢ $65 $71 +$5 (+8%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 83¢ 51¢ $83 $51 −$32 (-39%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 98¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $33 $18 −$16 (-47%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? No 65¢ 97¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? No 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 28¢ 48¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 20¢ 50¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+152%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 88¢ 17¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-80%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 44¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Jun 15 $1,710 +$239 +14%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 15 $56 +$108 +195%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? Jun 15 $120 +$39 +33%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Jun 15 $3 −$129 -4858%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 15 $0 −$131 -32694%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Jun 15 $28 +$28 +100%
Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025? Jun 15 $30 −$3 -10%
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? Jun 15 $23 +$11 +49%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Trump abolishes IRS in 2025? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025? Jun 15 $4 −$13 -351%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 15 $17 +$112 +664%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +132%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Jun 15 $8 −$80 -1056%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +2945%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? Jun 15 $3 −$18 -531%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2025? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
US stagflation in 2025? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Drake release an album in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$8 -609%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +149%
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +662%
Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1617%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +312%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$35 -2114%
One Direction reunion in 2025? Jun 15 $0 −$35 -28426%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 15 $17 −$371 -2178%
US recession in 2025? Jun 15 $6 −$750 -11591%
Will the next James Bond be British? Jun 15 $2 −$52 -3038%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$7 -511%
Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? Jun 15 $0 −$5 -1994%
Obama divorce in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$255 -44984%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 15 $0 −$7 -16935%
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025? Jun 15 $6 −$108 -1926%
Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -214%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 15 $7 −$18 -262%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on April 30? Jun 15 $0 +$9 +24731%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +826%
Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
USDT depeg in 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Jun 15 $166 −$284 -171%
Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $112 201d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $12 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $12 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $10 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $58 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $435 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $550 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $11 202d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $348 202d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,099 205d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 45¢ $701 205d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $422 208d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 208d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 208d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 208d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $57 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $570 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 209d
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $294 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $800 269d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $186 269d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $570 269d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $700 269d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $600 269d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1,150 269d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $270 296d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,454 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,297.89 · official $7,297.56 (match) · 3500 history records