Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7857…c0c5 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$48
sports 22% −$22
politics 9% +$16
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% +$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 161 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage149d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $386 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $322 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $487 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $340 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $876 −$2 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $630 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $406 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 22 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $166 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 22 $518 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $704 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $538 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $309 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $287 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $868 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $309 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $668 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $76 38m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $76 2h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 7h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $76 8h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $76 9h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $76 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 22h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 24h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 26h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $76 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 35h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $77 36h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $77 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $77 40h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 44h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $77 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $77 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $77 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $77 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $77 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $77 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $77 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $77 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1497 history records