Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7858…d698 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-4%) realized −$157 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate78%88W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$4
14 days−$35
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$54
politics 23% −$99
other 19% −$105
economics 15% −$27
world 3% −$5
sports 3% +$25
tech 2% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.7% -11.9% 86% 29% -10.6%
≤30d 66 -5.8% -14.8% 80% 20% -14.4%
≤90d 67 -5.6% -14.6% 81% 19% -13.6%
all 113 -6.6% -15.5% 78% 23% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 23% -13.4%
10% -23.6% 9% -21.6%
15% -31.0% 4% -29.2%
20% -37.7% 4% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses88 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)113 / 133
History coverage248d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $11 +$4 (+54%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 22¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +13%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 16 $3 −$2 -85%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -100%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $28 +$1 +2%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -72%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $7 +$5 +70%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +53%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$18 -91%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 07 $59 +$24 +41%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 06 $22 −$17 -78%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $200? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 1 above $280? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $20 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 33h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 47h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 2d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m SELL Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.87 · official $285.93 (match) · 519 history records