Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7859…012e crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$863 (-16%) realized −$863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$828
other 13% −$713
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 39% -34.8%
≤30d 18 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 39% -34.8%
≤90d 18 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 39% -34.8%
all 18 -31.6% -38.1% 39% 39% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.1% 39% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 39% -41.0%
15% -49.4% 33% -46.7%
20% -54.4% 33% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$289 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $333 −$315 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $207 −$207 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $362 −$362 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $363 −$363 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $352 −$352 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $293 −$293 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $322 −$322 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $417 +$105 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $338 +$196 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $311 +$315 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $327 +$330 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $364 −$349 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $392 +$296 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $270 −$262 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $309 +$218 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $207 +$181 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $522 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $534 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records