Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x785b…1c6f sports 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (381 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$511 (+23%) realized +$511 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day381.1pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,899
other 17% +$394
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +84.5%
≤30d 5 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +84.5%
≤90d 5 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +84.5%
all 5 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +84.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover381.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.5% 100% +84.5%
10% ← realistic here +63.3% 100% +66.9%
15% +47.5% 100% +50.7%
20% +33.0% 100% +36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
98.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$459 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day381.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Jun 21 $1,092 +$1,143 +105%
Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Jun 20 $629 +$640 +102%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? Jun 20 $32 +$23 +72%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? Jun 20 $350 +$371 +106%
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular seas Jun 18 $103 +$117 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 882 history records