Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x785f…c1b5 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,746 (-7%) realized −$27,502 · open +$2,756
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 26L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,846per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$244est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$32,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,967
7 days+$9,624
14 days−$28,683
30 days−$28,683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$45,179
other 41% +$11,938
economics 8% +$2,756
sports 6% +$2,429
crypto 3% +$1,842
finance 1% +$230
weather 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +18.2% +7.0% 61% 51% -2.8%
≤30d 73 +11.7% +1.0% 64% 49% -17.4%
≤90d 73 +11.7% +1.0% 64% 49% -17.4%
all 73 +11.7% +1.0% 64% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 49% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 33% -25.3%
15% -17.5% 25% -32.5%
20% -25.5% 14% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$2,039) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$590 vs −$2,170 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$32,200
Realized−$27,502
Unrealized+$2,756
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$244
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4,846
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $29,444 $32,200 +$2,756 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $503 +$122 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,316 +$442 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,009 −$596 -59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $603 +$128 +21%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $204 −$63 -31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $705 +$199 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21,580 +$2,039 +9%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $509 −$366 -72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$86 -42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,005 +$192 +10%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$160 -78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,508 +$307 +20%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $204 −$121 -60%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20,094 +$3,602 +18%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,016 −$812 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $507 −$406 -80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $505 +$276 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,011 +$398 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $707 +$362 +51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$65 -63%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $336 +$1,458 +434%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,627 −$664 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31,042 +$631 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $509 −$347 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,479 +$1,532 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$296 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,020 +$722 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,003 +$106 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,008 +$317 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,048 +$2,152 +36%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $30,000 +$910 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$683 -67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,013 +$481 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,012 −$1,909 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,920 +$1,395 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 −$43 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 57m
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $413 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $184 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $93 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $43 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 26h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $142 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $20,072 29h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $892 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 32h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $117 32h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,199.99 · official $32,199.99 (match) · 205 history records