Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7863…6ff5 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% $0
politics 25% −$3
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 2% −$10
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 10% -9.7%
all 99 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 10% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage82d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $305 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $99 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $94 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $94 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.21 · official $14.21 (match) · 257 history records