Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7867…cc91 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%82W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$46
14 days−$106
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$46
other 7% −$131
sports 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.9% -40.2% 44% 44% -23.5%
≤30d 18 -25.3% -32.4% 61% 28% -21.5%
≤90d 38 -10.5% -19.0% 82% 16% -12.1%
all 89 -4.2% -13.3% 92% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 7% -10.3%
10% -21.6% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.2% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses82 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage156d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 84¢ 3¢ $68 $2 −$66 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 −$38 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$38 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 +$8 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $39 +$6 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? Jun 01 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $96 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 20 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 18 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $95 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $76 +$25 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 04 $116 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $58 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 30? Mar 31 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $57 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 26? Mar 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 22? Mar 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? Mar 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? Mar 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 17? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 13? Mar 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? Mar 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 11? Mar 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 10? Mar 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 9? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 7? Mar 09 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 6? Mar 07 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $52 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $55 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $66 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $44 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $36 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 93¢ $34 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 84¢ $69 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 97¢ $56 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 36d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 94¢ $96 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? BUY No 96¢ $48 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $48 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? BUY No 99¢ $47 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 99¢ $47 76d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 93¢ $95 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.45 · official $53.46 (match) · 173 history records