Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7868…a026
other · 118 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$70 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$164
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions67
Markets (closed)51 / 118
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 67 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$33
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -13%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$25 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +161%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Luan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Yecong Mo Jun 06 $1 +$1 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$3 -66%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$36
crypto 18% −$19
sports 11% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -3.1% -12.4% 32% 29% -31.5%
≤30d 51 -26.5% -33.5% 27% 24% -40.9%
≤90d 51 -26.5% -33.5% 27% 24% -40.9%
all 51 -26.5% -33.5% 27% 24% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 24% -40.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 24% -46.6%
15% -45.7% 22% -51.8%
20% -51.0% 16% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.25 · official $164.26 (match) · 217 history records