Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
78 0x7869…3acf other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$75 (+11%) realized +$76 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%33W / 25L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$82
14 days+$95
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$26
sports 45% +$51
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +46.7% +32.7% 68% 68% +18.0%
≤30d 58 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 55% +2.0%
≤90d 58 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 55% +2.0%
all 58 +14.1% +3.2% 57% 55% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 55% +2.0%
10% -6.6% 53% -7.7%
15% -15.7% 43% -16.6%
20% -23.9% 31% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses33 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 68
History coverage17d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 70¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $40 +$10 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 +$3 +140%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 +$3 +128%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$6 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026- Jun 25 $5 −$1 -14%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $38 +$18 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$11 -76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $32 +$7 +21%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8 +$3 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8 +$2 +31%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 +$3 +32%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4 +$3 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$14 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $3 +$6 +212%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$14 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 14¢ $2 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 14¢ $2 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $40 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 43¢ $3 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY 43¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL 44¢ $9 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026- SELL 22¢ $4 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 48¢ $5 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026- BUY 25¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 48¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 63¢ $7 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $32 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 61¢ $6 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $16 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 68¢ $16 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.77 · official $38.65 · 124 history records