Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
78 0x786d…2bdd politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$22
other 41% −$17
sports 6% +$41
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 121 -2.5% -11.8% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 138 +1.1% -8.5% 7% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×12.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage118d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $344 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $318 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $518 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $242 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $247 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 34h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 34h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 43h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $51 43h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 47h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 393 history records