Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7872…c888 crypto 434 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,666 (+0%) realized +$2,665 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%419W / 12L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$5,043per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$66
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2,577
politics 1% $0
other 0% +$157
world 0% +$14
weather 0% −$55
finance 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 129 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 431 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$7,992) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.9 per $1 lost it wins $15.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1,012
Realized+$2,665
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses419 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)431 / 434
History coverage248d
Avg bet$5,043
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $623 $624 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $385 $386 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,784 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10,763 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,863 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,990 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8,111 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,339 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,637 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $327 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,543 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3,154 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,769 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? May 31 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 28? May 28 $666 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 27? May 27 $25,974 +$26 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $17,982 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $13,169 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 24? May 24 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $3,997 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $5,117 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 22? May 22 $2,272 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 21? May 21 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 20? May 20 $2,081 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $14,986 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 19? May 19 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $14,260 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 18? May 18 $9,976 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 18? May 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16? May 16 $14,589 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16? May 16 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 15? May 15 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $6,593 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 14 $10,973 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 14? May 14 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 11 $25,974 +$26 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 10 $4,415 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 09 $12,045 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $618 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $229 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $64 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2,710 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7,744 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $152 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,049 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,544 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $998 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $126 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $392 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $392 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $499 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $987 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $499 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $246 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.39 · official $1,012.39 (match) · 2200 history records