Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7874…45eb
other · 50 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$87 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 4 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$80
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Up 83¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 66¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Down 94¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 12? Up 87¢ 73¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Up 94¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -41%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +17%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -39%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -69%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -53%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$18 -78%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -8%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $47 −$27 -57%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$15 -73%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$26 -65%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$7 +17%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +5%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -92%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -51%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $93 +$6 +6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +3%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$2 +26%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$4 +29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% −$60
finance 24% −$16
tech 6% −$5
sports 5% −$4
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 35¢ $1 43m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 70¢ $3 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 42¢ $2 3h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 26¢ $1 3h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 28¢ $2 3h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 69¢ $3 4h
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 83¢ $5 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 85¢ $5 5h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 92¢ $2 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 70¢ $2 25h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 51¢ $3 25h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 85¢ $3 25h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 75¢ $2 26h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 45¢ $3 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 27h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 80¢ $5 28h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 76¢ $5 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 85¢ $5 29h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 96¢ $2 46h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 37¢ $1 46h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 58¢ $2 46h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 31¢ $1 47h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 90¢ $3 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 41¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -14.3% -22.5% 59% 30% -22.1%
≤30d 46 -15.7% -23.7% 59% 28% -22.7%
≤90d 46 -15.7% -23.7% 59% 28% -22.7%
all 46 -15.7% -23.7% 59% 28% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 28% -22.7%
10% -31.0% 15% -30.1%
15% -37.7% 4% -36.8%
20% -43.8% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.37 · official $11.48 (match) · 116 history records