Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x7875…e0ef crypto 747 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,092 (+4%) realized +$1,668 · open −$576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%374W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$161
14 days+$666
30 days+$1,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$416
sports 0% +$37
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 25% -30.0%
≤30d 161 +6.4% -3.8% 63% 39% +0.3%
≤90d 722 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 36% -7.0%
all 740 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 36% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 36% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -15.4%
15% -28.3% 20% -23.6%
20% -35.3% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$1,668
Unrealized−$576
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses374 / 366
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)740 / 747
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $431 $139 −$291 (-68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 31¢ 44¢ $97 $136 +$39 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $329 $127 −$202 (-62%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 62¢ 60¢ $129 $124 −$5 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $205 $118 −$87 (-42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 10¢ 8¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$23 +33%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 17 $65 +$37 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$39 +388%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $39 −$37 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $132 −$119 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $177 +$41 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $120 −$107 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $131 +$18 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $61 +$77 +127%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $287 +$67 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 08 $235 +$26 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $114 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $95 −$49 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $43 +$11 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 08 $4 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $297 +$307 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $192 +$94 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $32 +$66 +211%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $669 +$91 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $353 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $401 +$193 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $677 −$57 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 04 $283 −$275 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 04 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $118 −$37 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 04 $58 −$22 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $96 −$38 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $105 −$101 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $141 +$230 +163%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $461 +$377 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $197 +$352 +179%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 10¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 4¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $71 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $133 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $127 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 50¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $4 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $18 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 88¢ $22 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $63 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $7 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $11 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $21 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $102 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $3 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $42 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY No 14¢ $39 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 26¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.47 · official $680.12 (match) · 3405 history records